Energy savings, thermal generation, reservoir management, liquidity and extraordinary operating measures are all part of Colombia’s strategy to navigate El Niño 2026–2027. Since September 5, the power system has formally entered a period of supply shortage risk. This is a guide to understanding Energía YA, how it works and what is at stake.
By Juan Daniel Correa
Director, Clean Energy
Colombia is entering a period in which every drop of stored water, every available megawatt and every peso flowing through the electricity sector matter.
IDEAM estimates a probability of more than 90% that El Niño conditions will persist through the first quarter of 2027, with a 69% probability that the event will reach very strong intensity during October, November and December 2026.
The effects are already showing up in the country’s hydrology. Reservoirs used for power generation ended July at 79.99% of usable capacity, while hydrological inflows fell to 59.94% of the historical average during the first days of August.
A critical regulatory decision has now added another layer of urgency. On September 5, CREG activated the mechanism designed to sustain system reliability and formally initiated a period of supply shortage risk. The National Dispatch Center began applying the corresponding provisions for system operations on September 7.
Colombia is not currently under a nationwide electricity rationing program. But the regulator has formally recognized a risk of supply shortages serious enough to trigger extraordinary measures.
The challenge is to manage today the water, generation capacity, fuels and financial resources that the system may need in the months ahead.
This is the context for Energía YA, the strategy launched by President Abelardo de la Espriella’s administration to safeguard the continuity and reliability of electricity supply while addressing the sector’s financial and operational pressures.
The energy equation
Colombia’s power system relies heavily on hydropower. When river inflows decline, using water to generate electricity today means having fewer reserves available to meet demand tomorrow.
The immediate alternative is to increase generation from other sources, particularly thermal plants. But thermal generation requires more than installed capacity: plants must be physically available, have access to fuel and possess the financial capacity to operate.
CREG has warned of growing reliance on the thermal fleet during periods of critical hydrology and peak demand. Among the underlying factors are rising electricity demand, delays in expanding generation and transmission infrastructure, and constraints on fuel availability.
| Variable | Risk | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Hydrology | Lower inflows | Preserve reservoir levels |
| Demand | Greater pressure on the system | Conservation and efficiency |
| Thermal generation | Greater need for backup | Increase availability |
| Fuels | Supply constraints | Secure availability |
| Liquidity | Stress along the payment chain | Restore financial capacity |
| Infrastructure | Delays in generation and transmission | Accelerate projects |
| New generation | Reduced system margin | Add capacity and diversify sources |
At its core, Energía YA is an energy risk management strategy.
But the current situation also points to a broader issue. Cutting consumption during an emergency preserves water and fuel; permanently improving energy efficiency allows the economy to deliver the same — or better — services with less energy. That frees up generation and grid capacity, reduces peak demand and strengthens the system as a whole.
What does Energía YA include?
| Area | Measure | Objective |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | COP 1.5 trillion for the remainder of 2026 | Support the payment chain and operations |
| Supply shortage risk | Extraordinary measures | Preserve reliability |
| Thermal generation | Special dispatch and redispatch rules | Increase backup and conserve water |
| Reservoirs | Anticipatory water management | Preserve energy for critical months |
| Demand | Incentives for savings and charges for excess consumption | Reduce pressure on the system |
| Contracting | Strengthen long-term contracting | Reduce exposure to the spot market |
| Caribbean region | Management and sustainability measures | Reduce financial and operational vulnerabilities |
1. Colombia is already in a period of supply shortage risk
CREG Resolution 101 127 of 2026 introduced temporary measures designed to secure electricity supply during El Niño 2026–2027.
CREG subsequently activated the mechanism for sustaining reliability and formally initiated the period of supply shortage risk. XM announced the decision on September 5.
This is not the same as rationing.
Supply shortage risk means taking preventive measures before electricity becomes insufficient. Rationing means demand can no longer be fully served and electricity supply must be restricted.
The purpose of the measures now in place is precisely to avoid reaching that point.
2. Saving electricity: how the program works
CREG Resolution 101 120 of 2026 created a temporary energy-efficiency incentive program for regulated users of Colombia’s National Interconnected System. Its starting date was subsequently set for September 1, 2026.
Each user is assigned an individual daily consumption target, generally calculated using the median of their average daily consumption during the reference period established by the regulation.
| Consumption relative to target | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Below 90% | Generates recognized savings |
| Between 90% and 110% | Neutral band |
| Above 110% | Additional charge on excess consumption |
The factor applied to excess consumption depends on the type of user:
| User | Factor |
|---|---|
| Residential, strata 1, 2 and 3 | 1.30 |
| Residential, strata 4, 5 and 6 | 1.50 |
| Regulated commercial and industrial users | 1.70 |
The additional charge does not apply to the entire electricity bill. It is calculated on the energy consumed above the threshold established by the regulation.
The mechanism is self-financing. Revenue actually collected from excess consumption goes into a pool within each retail market and is subsequently distributed among users whose savings qualify under the program.
Saving electricity therefore does not automatically produce a fixed discount. The benefit depends on the resources actually collected.
Beyond the immediate contingency, this points to a structural opportunity: energy efficiency.
Efficiency is not simply about consuming less. It means achieving the same — or better — outcome with less energy: more efficient buildings and equipment, optimized industrial processes, better lighting and cooling, more efficient mobility, and grids that reduce losses and unnecessary demand.
Energy that does not need to be consumed is itself a resource for the system.
3. More thermal generation to preserve water
CREG Resolution 101 118 of 2026 introduced a temporary redispatch provision for thermal power plants.
The measure allows the National Dispatch Center to incorporate additional thermal capacity when a generator recovers or increases the availability of its units after the dispatch schedule has already been established.
The logic is straightforward: generating with fuel today can help preserve water for tomorrow.
The measure is scheduled to remain in force through May 31, 2027, subject to developments in system conditions.
During a prolonged dry period, stored water is more than water. It is energy that may be needed in the months ahead if hydrological conditions continue to deteriorate.
4. Liquidity is also energy
Decree 802 of 2026 reported approximately COP 2.76 trillion in outstanding financial obligations in the wholesale electricity market as of June 2026, concentrated among thermal generators and transmission companies.
The decree warns that these financial constraints could compromise the availability of plants and networks precisely when the system is facing periods of maximum stress.
On August 24, the Government announced COP 1.5 trillion for the energy sector for the remainder of 2026, including an initial disbursement of COP 300 billion.
The relationship is direct:
Liquidity → fuel and operations → thermal availability → less pressure on reservoirs.
Installed capacity alone does not guarantee electricity. A power plant must be available, have access to fuel and be able to operate when the system needs it.
5. Clean energy: expanding supply and diversifying risk
Thermal generation currently serves a specific backup function. The structural response, however, requires Colombia to expand and diversify its generation capacity.
This is where clean energy becomes essential.
Colombia has solar, wind, hydro, biomass, biogas and other resources capable of providing new capacity according to the characteristics of each region.
Solar power can combine utility-scale projects with distributed generation in industries, businesses, homes and communities. Wind power can harness high-quality resources and complement other generation patterns. Biomass and biogas can turn local resources and waste streams into usable energy.
Their value is not merely environmental.
New clean generation expands supply, diversifies risk and can reduce excessive dependence on any single source or climatic condition. Distributed generation can also bring electricity production closer to where it is consumed.
But adding megawatts is not enough.
Solar and wind expansion must advance alongside transmission, more flexible grids, storage and demand management. Batteries can shift electricity across hours, manage peaks and enable greater integration of variable renewable generation.
Future energy security depends on putting all the pieces together:
Clean energy + storage + transmission + efficiency + demand management + firm capacity.
This is not about choosing one technology over another. It is about building a system capable of using each resource where it delivers the greatest value.
6. Energía YA did not start from scratch
The timeline matters.
On May 12, 2026, under the previous administration, the Ministry of Mines and Energy presented a 50-action roadmap to the Advisory Commission for Coordination and Monitoring of the Energy Situation — CACSSE — to prepare the country for El Niño 2026–2027.
It included monitoring electricity demand and gas supply, tracking power plants and strategic projects, reviewing reliability mechanisms, addressing financial sustainability and strengthening technical coordination.
Decree 802 was issued on July 23, while CREG Resolutions 101 118 and 101 120 were approved on July 30.
Under the new administration, the start of the energy-saving program was subsequently modified, CREG Resolution 101 127 was issued and, on September 5, the period of supply shortage risk was formally activated.
Energía YA should therefore be understood as the new Government’s strategy built on a technical and regulatory architecture that began before the change in administration and has continued to evolve.
In energy, that continuity matters: projects, investment decisions and regulation extend far beyond a single presidential term.
Energía YA: key takeaways
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What is it? | The Government’s strategy to protect the continuity and reliability of electricity supply |
| Is there a risk of supply shortages? | Yes. CREG has formally activated the period of supply shortage risk |
| Is there nationwide rationing? | No. Supply shortage risk and rationing are different conditions |
| Why do reservoirs matter? | They are a critical energy reserve for the months ahead |
| How is demand being addressed? | Through individual targets, incentives for savings and charges for excess consumption |
| Does the Government pay users directly for saving? | No. The mechanism is financed by additional charges actually collected |
| Why is thermal generation needed? | It provides backup and helps conserve stored water |
| Why does liquidity matter? | It affects fuel procurement, operations and actual plant availability |
| What does energy efficiency contribute? | It reduces energy requirements and frees up system capacity |
| What does clean energy contribute? | New generation, diversification and reduced exposure to a single source |
| What does that expansion require? | Grids, transmission, storage, flexibility and firm capacity |
| How much has the Government announced? | COP 1.5 trillion for the remainder of 2026 |
What should we be watching?
Results must be measured in data.
Reservoir levels and hydrological inflows; thermal generation and fuel availability; demand behavior; the financial condition of the market; actual commissioning of generation and transmission projects; deployment of storage; and new clean generation, both utility-scale and distributed.
Announced projects will not be enough. What matters are the megawatts actually connected and available.
Clean Energy analysis
Energía YA is based on a technically sound premise: manage today the resources that could become critical tomorrow.
Lower demand preserves water and fuel. Greater thermal availability helps conserve reservoir levels. Restoring liquidity helps turn installed capacity into actual generation.
The activation of the supply shortage risk period confirms that the system’s margin now requires active management.
Colombia is using conservation, thermal generation, liquidity and regulation to buy time.
The question is: what will the country do with that time?
Part of the answer lies in energy efficiency: producing more, delivering better services and carrying out our activities while making better use of every unit of energy.
The other part lies in expanding and diversifying supply. Colombia has solar, wind, hydro, biomass and other resources capable of becoming new clean generation. Accelerating their effective deployment — both at utility scale and through distributed generation — strengthens the power mix and reduces vulnerabilities.
But the energy transition must be measured in available energy, not announced megawatts. New generation needs transmission to reach demand centers, storage and flexibility to manage variability, rules that enable investment, and firm capacity when the system requires it.
Energy security and clean energy are part of the same equation.
Energía YA can help Colombia navigate El Niño 2026–2027. The challenge is to use this period to build a system with more generation, stronger grids, greater storage capacity, higher efficiency and a growing share of clean energy.
The emergency requires us to manage the system we have well.
The future requires us to build the system we need.
Sources
IDEAM — Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies. “Condiciones ‘El Niño’ continúan en fortalecimiento y aumenta la probabilidad de que alcance una intensidad muy fuerte”. August 13, 2026.
XM. “Activación del mecanismo para el sostenimiento de la confiabilidad e inicio del período de riesgo de desabastecimiento”. September 5, 2026.
XM. “En julio, los embalses de energía del país cerraron en un 79,99 %”. August 12, 2026.
Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission — CREG. Resolution 101 127 of 2026. Temporary measures to secure electricity supply during El Niño 2026–2027. August 2026.
Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission — CREG. Circular 343 of 2026. Activation of the mechanism for sustaining reliability and initiation of the supply shortage risk period. September 2026.
Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission — CREG. Resolution 101 126 of 2026. Modification of the starting date of the temporary energy-efficiency incentive program. August 2026.
Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission — CREG. Resolution 101 120 of 2026. Temporary incentive program for the efficient use of electricity. July 30, 2026.
Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission — CREG. Resolution 101 118 of 2026. Temporary redispatch provision for thermal generation plants. July 30, 2026.
Presidency of the Republic of Colombia. Decree 802 of 2026. National Disaster Situation declaration. July 23, 2026.
Ministry of Mines and Energy. “Gobierno Nacional destina $1,5 billones para proteger a los colombianos de posibles afectaciones en el servicio de energía”. August 24, 2026.
Ministry of Mines and Energy. “Gobierno nacional activa hoja de ruta con 50 acciones para anticiparse al fenómeno de El Niño 2026-2027”. May 12, 2026.
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